The war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than two months now. This is a very short period of time as wars and battles go, however it is much longer than Russia had intended to last. They thought it would be a lightning strike, the capital would be taken and then it would be over as the armies capitulated. American intelligence thought that too and don’t kid yourself about it. The Korean war lasted for about three years until Eisenhower came in and threatened privately to go nuclear and then it ended very quickly. World War II went on for six years from 1938-39 until May 1945. Viet Nam went forever from the 1930s until April 1975 when our 15-year involvement ended. The Arabs and Israelis went for days and weeks. It was over before it really began.
Smaller battlefields usually lend themselves to shorter wars, but Ukraine is a very large battlefield and thus you could see this war last months and even years. This is a very strange war because as we mentioned if you were a betting person, the smart money said the Russians swamp them out and it’s over. No one believed that they saw what they saw.
Smaller battlefields usually lend themselves to shorter wars, but Ukraine is a very large battlefield and thus you could see this war last months and even years. This is a very strange war because as we mentioned if you were a betting person, the smart money said the Russians swamp them out, and its over. No one believed that they saw what they saw.
- They thought the American – NATO relationship was fractured. That NATO would not respond to a Russian attack on Ukraine. They believed this with good reason. Russia had previously gone into the Crimea, Belarus, the Donetsk area, and Chechnya without NATO doing much more than complaining.
- Russia held an overwhelming advantage in terms of men, materials, and resources compared to the Ukrainians.
- They thought the Ukrainians would fold, the same way the Afghanistan Army folded in 24 hours after 20 years of American training, and billions upon billions of dollars of American support.
- Russia never believed for a minute that the West would send billions of dollars of equipment into the combat zone to enable Ukraine to score big. They simply did not believe we had the stomach for it.
Once you are in – you’re in in
A country goes to war for one set of reasons, totally commits to the war, and then finds out that its premises and assumptions were completely wrong, and what do we do now. You have put your prestige on the line, the world is watching. You just can’t walk out and we Americans demonstrated in Viet Nam, a war we could not win unless we were prepared to kill every enemy in both South Viet Nam and North Viet Nam. This would include the women who could fight and all young adults and even teenagers because the Viet Namese were prepared to fight to the last person as they had for 25 years prior to our involvement. It seems Ukraine is the same. This is an existential war for Ukraine. In other words, they believe that Putin wishes to exterminate the Ukrainian existence from the face of the earth and turn it into a Russian puppet state. It is therefore true that the Ukrainians must fight to the last person.
Further Russian Mistakes
- The Russian soldier is a complete farce to the image that has been portrayed. He is poorly trained, poorly motivated, and just wants to go home. Thirty percent of the Russian soldiers are alcoholics which the press has not published. How could an army like this possibly stand up to a Western or NATO-trained force, and the Ukrainians have been learning from NATO for years. In addition, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union for decades. They trained with the Russians and knew their strategy and their equipment. They had this figured out from the beginning.
- Russian Generals were inferior. American Generals are not what they were 30 or 40 years ago either. Russian Generals still think like World War II armies. America and now NATO trained their Generals to the nth degree. They all go to the finest universities in this country, US Berkeley, Princeton, Harvard, and war colleges. They all without exception have advanced degrees including Masters, and even Ph.D. or they don’t’ get advanced in the military. The Russians Generals go their heads handed to them and in 11 cases got themselves killed. It would never happen to American Generals.
- You don’t go swimming NAKED when there are sharks in the water. It is unheard of in modern warfare and even in early 20th-century warfare to have tanks in an open field or on roads without having DISMOUNTED INFANTRY protecting them. If you have a tank column you have several hundred soldiers with rifles out walking and on jeeps looking for snipers or in this case Ukrainian soldiers with anti-tank weapons. You don’t have those tanks traveling naked and that has cost the Russians 1000 plus tanks and the equivalent in personnel carriers and artillery.
- Russian Strategy Failed. If you want to win, you must attack the other guy’s army. Attacking cities, launching missiles against cities. It doesn’t work. Show me in history where it does. The German V-2 missile bombs over London only hardened England’s resolve to resist. You think Hiroshima was something. Prior to the atomic bombing of Japan in July – August 1945, the United States on the evening of March 9th into the 10th, sent wave after wave of American bombers dropping conventional bombs on Tokyo. In a matter of hours, more than 100,000 Japanese civilians were DEAD. Tokyo was made of wood, not cement or steel. A million people were left homeless. They didn’t surrender. Even after two atomic bombings, they didn’t surrender contrary to history books you might read. They only surrendered because the same day as the second atomic bombing, the Russians came in with their million-man army from the north. The Japanese Generals realized the Russians from the north, the Americans from the East and south, this is over. Putin should have learned from history. Killing civilians does not win wars. You have to destroy the army. The Russians are trying to destroy cities. They need to destroy the army. The Ukrainians know their own cities better than the Russians ever all. The advantage is to the home team. The Russians think the army is an insignificant force that they can bully out of the way while they attack the Ukrainian cities. It’s not going to happen, hasn’t yet, and won’t. Once again, you need to kill the army.
- The Russians thought they would fight a conventional war against the Ukrainian army. Did they get a surprise? The Ukrainians completely DECENTRALIZED THEMSELVES. Ukraine has multiple independent divisions, battalions, brigades, and Generals, all operating independently. You will notice you never hear about one General running the show on the Ukrainian side. That’s because they all operate independently of one another. They PICK and CHOOSE their battles and then they SWARM the Russians in one particular area and overwhelm them and kill them off. It is not a monolithic army against a monolithic army.
This is NOT a War of Attrition
The press is saying this over and over again. They destroy a tank, and the Ukrainians destroy one of theirs until the last man is left standing and that’s the winner. This is non-sense. This is not how it is going to end.
Contrary to what you have been told by the press, this is not a war of attrition, where you take a tank and we take a tank. No, no, it is not going that way. The reason is this. American armor and weapons trump Russia’s anything. Everything the Russians are fighting with is inferior in both its technology, usage, maintenance requirements and usability. On February 24th, when the Russians invaded, the Ukrainians were poorly equipped for this war. After losing billions of dollars of equipment to the Taliban in Afghanistan months before, we were not about to be humiliated again by losing advanced weaponry to the Russians. But then we saw the WILL of the Ukrainian army and it changed everything.
This is how it plays out. Artillery has killed more people in more wars than any other weapon in history. No question about this. American artillery can destroy Russian artillery because the range that we can fire artillery over is several miles more than the range of Russian artillery. What this means is simple. The Ukrainians have to get in close to the Russian artillery but not so close that the Russian artillery can fire back at them. This is no different than I’m a sniper and you have a regular rifle. I can shoot you at 1000 yards, but your weapon is 700 yards maximum. I will kill you all day long and you can’t touch me. The Ukraine army is going to decimate the Russian army from village to village wiping out their men, tanks, artillery, and personnel carriers, and the Russians will not be able to respond. They can’t fly airplanes because the Ukrainians have thousands of Stinger missiles among other missiles. They can’t use their tanks because their opposing army has shoulder-mounted anti-tank weapons. This war is going to be over quicker than everybody thinks.
The United States will continue to supply everything necessary to support a Russian defeat. You cannot have Russia right up against a NATO border. America knows this and now Russia knows this. The Russians have no way out and soon within days we believe, both Finland and Sweden will announce membership applications to join NATO.
The Americans wanted the Russians to fail, and now America has Russia where we want them. We did not want to deploy American troops, to be drawn into this a combat situation. Ukraine must not be defeated. We now realize that we can deny the Russians a military victory and not be physically part of this. The answer was a massive amount of western-style military equipment.
We have taken what is truly an effective Ukrainian army which was fighting Russia to a standstill and now evolved it into a massive fighting machine with the finest equipment in our army which is superior to all armies in the world. Russia is now at risk in any offensive the Ukrainians launch. There is a window of opportunity for the Russians, we think it may have already passed.
The world’s press thought the Russians would announce something, anything for their May 9th celebration with their parade. They said nothing. This tells us that the time for them to act has probably already passed. With each day, literally, days and hours mean something here, the Ukrainian army masters our equipment. The precision of aiming the artillery, how it works, and so forth will become natural to them. We are training their army in Poland right now. Hundreds of Ukrainians are learning our weapons, and don’t think we aren’t teaching their pilots how to fly our advanced aircraft if it comes to that. We have had weeks to do this. Don’t think we haven’t taken the cream of their crop and put them through Special Forces training with the Army Rangers, Marine Recon units, Navy Seals, Delta Force, and Britain’s Special Air Service 22nd Regiment. We have had a month to propel through a year’s worth of training. And when your country’s life is at risk, you learn quickly. From here it is all downhill for the Russians, so our advice to them if asked would be.
“Make peace, you fools.”
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